The American decline, and the void that is forming

Woke up today to the news of Charlie Kirk's assassination. I see it as an inflection point of significance. On its own it is shocking and deeply saddening (for reasons elaborated below), but it comes at the heel of a string of noteworthy events/phenomena.

First let me lay out these events/phenomena and then I will share my thoughts:

Let's start with the fentanyl epidemic - I spent the summer traveling the United States and visited a handful of major US cities - NYC, Las Vegas, San Francisco and, Washington D.C. And I witnessed widespread open drug use. The visible homelessness and public drug use I witnessed - people standing hunched and drooling, shouting at no one, dancing half-naked on streets combined with the overall apathy to it is very close to the reality on much of the streets of urban India - widespread homelessness and poverty combined with public apathy, but thankfully without all the rampant open drug abuse. The rest of the city coping with the reality. Many shop owners operate behind locked doors (or at least have safeguards to prevent incursion by the homeless) and the people on the sidewalks walk around the squatters who just splay out their bags of dirty clothes and other items right on the sidewalk. The DEA reports that 5 out of 10 counterfeit pills contain potentially lethal doses of fentanyl¹. Clearly, there must be dead homeless people on these streets from time to time, although I neither witnessed that directly nor had other people speak of such events. I did see cops struggling to help a man who was passed out on the streets right in the middle of a busy street in Las Vegas.
Then there is the issue of unprovoked violence on unsuspecting victims. This week alone saw some rather unusually shocking stories of an Ukranian woman getting stabbed by a man on a train, an Indian man getting beheaded by a coworker (who was an illegal immigrant let go by the court for prior crimes) for apparently no reason, . There were 499 mass shootings in 2024, killing 507 people¹⁶. School shootings persist with 47 incidents through September 10, 2025, leaving 19 dead and 77 injured¹⁷. The US continues to experience over 100 school shooting incidents annually since 2018, while other G7 countries combined had only 5 between 2009-2018¹⁸. The whole appeal of the US being a paragon of personal freedom is under threat because no one can safely assume the guarantee of their safety and more importantly the safety of their children.
Then there is a more recent development of the interference into the sovereignty of academic institutions. The federal government has threatened to withhold billions in funding from universities over DEI programs and antisemitism investigations⁸. Columbia University had $400 million withheld⁹, Harvard faced threats to $2.2 billion in grants¹⁰, and at least 97 institutions are under investigation, potentially affecting $33 billion in federal funding¹¹. On February 14, 2025, Acting Assistant Secretary Craig Trainor sent a "Dear Colleague" letter threatening to withhold federal funds from institutions engaged in DEI programming¹².
Then there are the persistent questions about the US president's past association with Jeffrey Epstein. While Trump and Epstein socialized frequently in the 1990s and early 2000s, with Trump flying on Epstein's jet seven times¹⁹, there is no publicly documented evidence tying Trump to Epstein's crimes²⁰. The DOJ found no "client list" or evidence of blackmail²¹. However, polling shows 68% of Americans believe Trump knew about Epstein's crimes before investigations began²². The administration's reversal on releasing Epstein files after initially promising transparency²³ continues to fuel speculation and distrust.
Then comes Charlie Kirk's assassination. The 31-year-old founder of Turning Point USA was fatally shot while speaking at Utah Valley University, in what Utah's governor described as a "political assassination"²⁴. He's a controversial figure, no doubt. But his presence was a demonstration of the one thing that separated America from a majority of the rest of the world - freedom of speech. He was able to move freely, speak his mind, thrive and of course a lot of people found him offensive. But he was not a deranged man whose sole intent was to offend people. You can disagree with his viewpoints, but he presented himself as an American patriot who was a thoughtful representative of a certain set of values that many believed to be important for America. His death was an inflection point because it changes the landscape for Americans who wish to speak their mind openly. What was sad to witness was the response to this on public social media - some people (presumably those who were offended by his views and considered his speech as hate speech) posting satirical content celebrating his death with great joy.

Now let's get to what I think about each of these things and why I believe we're at an inflection point that requires some serious consideration from anyone who is a champion of our species' progress and prosperity.

The above events/phenomena are markers of decline. And any great civilization can absorb the impact of

Fentanyl thoughts
Academic thoughts - This impacts academic research in a way that can challenge the US dominance in this arena. Faculty report increased self-censorship, with more than half avoiding expressing scholarly views they believe are correct¹³. Not to mention how this is a massive advantage for China to get past the US in terms of frontier level research.

For me these are sufficient symptoms for a diagnosis of a spiritual, intellectual and moral decline of an empire. The intellectual decline is most concerning for me considering that was the predominant reason why the US was most appealing for some of the most foremost intellectuals of the world, and they were instrumental in building America to be what it is.

For all of our sake, I certainly hope that this not the beginning of a consistent decline and just a temporary dip that the US is going to recover from. The world has voluntarily or involuntarily invested a lot in the US and it's had its dividends for all of us. America is the birthplace of much of the technological innovations that have driven global progress the past several decades.

As unpleasant as it has been for any of us invested in human progress to witness this decline, it is only natural. History is full of the rise and fall of potent forces that shape the course of the future for humanity. At various points of human history various civilizations have taken the torch and led growth and progress forward, generating something or the other of value that propels our species to new places. But none in that long lineage of forces that have significantly shaped our history have had the kind of widespanning and rapid impact as America has over the past several decades. Under the age of the American empire, we've had the birth of some fundamentally unique technology that has changed the game for us as a species. America was instrumental in much of the technologies that we use today that offer great hope to advance our species. Today the US still maintains its 3rd position in the Global Innovation Index 2024²⁶, leads in unicorn companies (48% of global total)²⁷, and continues to dominate in fundamental research²⁸. In my mind, it still presents the best hope for all of us who wish to witness the human species surge ahead to new heights. But with the trends of its decline, it is important that the world proactively explores resilience and redundancy for the cause of progressing the interests of our species.

The American decline, and the void that is forming

References

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